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With the valuation becoming fuller (NFLX is up ~19% vs. S&P up ~5% YTD), the trend in rising long-term profitability is important given the upfront cash spend on content. We realize it will likely take a substantial sub beat to move the stock in the short-term, but the release slate in Q2 and Netflix’ssuccess with originals give us reason enough to remain buyers of the stock.” Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight, price target raised to $165 from $160) “We’re maintaining our Overweight rating on Netflix and raising our PT to $165 from $160, reflecting a stronger-than-expected 2Q subscriber outlook (+750K), partially offset by a slight miss in 1Q net adds (-230K) and virtually in-line financial results. Although quarterly net adds can be quite volatile, record 4Q net adds and the strong 2Q guide show healthy subscriber trends over longer periods, and a heavy slate of recurring originals should sustain growth for the rest of the year. We maintain our positive stance on the stock given 1) substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in international markets; 2) a strong secular tailwind as linear TV shifts to internet TV viewing; 3) the company’s leadership position with $6B+ of P&L content spend; and 4) the recent inflection/path to gradually higher operating/EBITDA margins.” Wedbush Securities, Michael Pachter (Underperform, price target raised to $73 from $68) “We continue to believe that Netflix cash burn is the driver of valuation, although largely overlooked by investors. While we have been consistently wrong about this stock, we have consistently valued stocks under coverage based upon the discounted present value of their future cash flows. As the cost of content continues to be bid up, we expect Netflix to continue to burn cash to fund content acquisition, and the company acknowledged that this will persist for “many years”. . . We don’t expect Netflix to become meaningfully profitable on a cash basis for several years, and we don’t expect positive free cash flow for the remainder of this decade; even then, we think that positive free cash flow will remain elusive UNLESS the company decides to materially increase price and sacrifice growth.
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